CSIS: Iran Rebuild Will Depend on Foreign Dual-Use Procurement

Iran’s postwar rebuild will turn less on battlefield conditions than on procurement. The report argues that Tehran’s damaged navy, shipyards, weapons plants and drone stocks will require foreign dual-use goods — from salvage equipment and CNC machine tools to drone electronics and marine engines — giving Washington and its allies a narrow window to disrupt supply chains before new routes through China, Pakistan, Turkey or the Caspian region harden. Its central policy recommendation is to adapt Russia-style anti-diversion tools to Iran, including “no reexport” clauses, third-country outreach and authority to restrict sales through suspected transshipment hubs.