The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, down from 3.3% in January, citing a sharp rise in tariffs and growing policy uncertainty. The United States faces one of the steepest revisions, with growth now projected at 1.8%, compared to a previous estimate of 2.7%.
“We are entering a new era,” IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said, warning that the global economic order of the past eighty years is being “reset” by protectionist measures.
The revised World Economic Outlook was released alongside the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, where policymakers reported qualified progress. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed U.S. support for the Bretton Woods institutions, conditioned on reforms. Delegates also announced a roadmap for sovereign debt restructuring and new engagement with Syria’s reconstruction.
Despite some improvement in sentiment, risks remain high. The IMF warned that the Argentina program remains a gamble and that the dollar’s role as the dominant global currency faces new questions.
Spanish Finance Minister Carlos Cuerpo, speaking at the Atlantic Council, stressed the importance of maintaining dialogue: “The most important deliverable this week…was simply for people to keep talking to each other.”
The IMF cautioned that the turn toward protectionism could result in slower and more volatile global growth for years to come.
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