Predicting Impact of China's Export Controls

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Prepared by a team at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the National Bureau of Asian Research, this report examines the existing export control regime of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and presents a methodology for anticipating and identifying future PRC controls on raw materials.

The PRC’s system of export controls has historically been piecemeal, and its administration poorly understood. Recent formalization of the system beginning in 2020 and escalating in 2023 is consistent with the PRC’s increased exercise of lawfare and demonstrates greater regulatory capabilities. PRC authorities are able to weaponize supply chains by targeting specific critical minerals under new export controls.

The PRC has gradually implemented and formalized export control measures, partly mirroring existing international frameworks. The country is relying further on a combination of these export controls and new legal mechanisms to retaliate against U.S. and allied technology protection measures.  [Link]

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